Output distributionspick the metrics you want to see
Histograms are over all iterations. Percentile strip under each chart: P10 / P25 / median / P75 / P90 / mean. Gold dashed line = 25% North Star on ROIC metrics.
Advisor scenario comparisonsame random draws, same programme
Fee drag = median ROIC points lost vs. no advisor. Fees include upfront, success, option, debt, retainer, true-ups and sunk upfront fees on dead deals.
What moves the needleone-at-a-time swing on
Click Run sensitivities. Each bar swings one input between a low and high case (shown) with everything else at your current settings.
Capital deployed & advisor feesmedian, by year of closing
Consideration = Accord's cheque (initial stake + option exercises). Retainer and annual true-ups are allocated to the year incurred.
Deal-by-deal (medians)as planned in section 1
Model notes
· EBITDA path: revenue grows at the drawn growth rate; margin ramps linearly to the uplift by month 24. Distributions to Accord = EBITDA × payout × stake × (1 − leakage), less interest on any acquisition debt.
· Option tranche: priced at entry multiple × EBITDA at exercise (or fixed at entry EV). Its 24-month ROIC clock starts at exercise. Advisor fee accrues on exercise if toggled.
· MOIC (5-yr) = cumulative distributions + terminal value of stake at entry multiple, ÷ capital deployed. Run-rate yield = annualised distributions in the final quarter of the 36-month programme ÷ total capital.
· Advisor "EV" base applies the % to 100% of transaction value even when Accord buys 30%. "Paid" base applies it to Accord's cheque only. Per-target minimum binds on every deal below floor ÷ rate (SICO: USD 6.0M / SAR 22.5M EV; Haykala: USD 13.3M / SAR 50M EV).
· Source proposals: SICO Capital 6 Sep 2026 (USD 25K Phase I–II; 2.5% min USD 150K; debt 2% min USD 150K; 12-month tail). Haykala 3 Sep 2026 (SAR 75K/mo × 9 then 50K ≈ USD 20K / 13.3K; 2% EV min SAR 1M ≈ USD 267K/company; 1.5% of debt raised). Counters per Accord internal memos 5–7 Sep 2026.
· Currency: the model runs in SAR internally; the USD/SAR switch in the header converts every figure and input at the 3.75 peg. Switching currency never changes the underlying assumptions.
· Option tranche: priced at entry multiple × EBITDA at exercise (or fixed at entry EV). Its 24-month ROIC clock starts at exercise. Advisor fee accrues on exercise if toggled.
· MOIC (5-yr) = cumulative distributions + terminal value of stake at entry multiple, ÷ capital deployed. Run-rate yield = annualised distributions in the final quarter of the 36-month programme ÷ total capital.
· Advisor "EV" base applies the % to 100% of transaction value even when Accord buys 30%. "Paid" base applies it to Accord's cheque only. Per-target minimum binds on every deal below floor ÷ rate (SICO: USD 6.0M / SAR 22.5M EV; Haykala: USD 13.3M / SAR 50M EV).
· Source proposals: SICO Capital 6 Sep 2026 (USD 25K Phase I–II; 2.5% min USD 150K; debt 2% min USD 150K; 12-month tail). Haykala 3 Sep 2026 (SAR 75K/mo × 9 then 50K ≈ USD 20K / 13.3K; 2% EV min SAR 1M ≈ USD 267K/company; 1.5% of debt raised). Counters per Accord internal memos 5–7 Sep 2026.
· Currency: the model runs in SAR internally; the USD/SAR switch in the header converts every figure and input at the 3.75 peg. Switching currency never changes the underlying assumptions.